Ÿ Macro

Macroeconomic news headlines under the loop.

Introduction

Recent years have witnessed significant fluctuations in the macroeconomy. This volatility underscores the undeniable impact of macroeconomic shifts, both short-term and long-term, on traditional and digital asset markets alike. This interconnectedness necessitates close attention to these factors when navigating markets regardless of the investment timeframe as they do in fact have influences on them.

Our Macro Advisor empowers you with real-time analysis of upcoming and ongoing macroeconomic events. It goes beyond simply reporting news events and their figures – providing deep dives into the potential impact of specific events on digital asset markets, with a focus on Bitcoin as a key market proxy.

Key Features

  1. Distribution of Returns Visualization: The Macro advisor includes an advanced graphing capability that displays the distribution of returns, comparing positive /negative returns against total returns. This visual representation helps users quickly identify trends and anomalies in economic data.

  2. Real-Time Event Tracking

  3. Statistical Analysis: The ŸRA calculates key statistical measures for each economic indicator, offering users a quick overview of the indicator's historical and current performance.

  4. User-Friendly Interface: The clean, color-coded interface allows for quick interpretation of data.

  5. Comparative Analysis: By providing previous values, forecasts, and actual data side by side, users can easily assess how current economic performance compares to expectations and historical trends.


Initial Database Structure The Macro Advisor leverages a rich database combining over 4 years of macroeconomic event data with over 2 million data points for 1-minute Bitcoin prices.


Framework

Ÿ Macro leverages three distinct message types within the Macro Thread, each delivering crucial insights on important macroeconomic events.

Upcoming Events Notifications
  • Delivery Method: Pinned Message

  • Update Frequency: Upon detection of new events (up to 48 hours into the future)

  • Content:

  • Event: Description of the upcoming economic events.

  • Time: Date and time of the event.

  • Previous Value: Most recently recorded value for the economic indicator associated with the event.

  • Forecast Value: Consensus forecast for the value of the economic indicator after the event.

The Event Notification

The Event Message provides real-time insights into the outcomes of important macroeconomic events and their impact on Bitcoin (BTC) performance. It offers the following functionalities:

Actual Data:

  • Previous Value: The recorded value of the economic indicator before the event.

  • Forecast Value: The analyst forecast for the economic indicator after the event (also known as the expected value).

  • Actual Value: The actual outcome of the event.

Features:

this section provide Delta calculation on the differences between actual, previous, and forecast values.

  • Actual Delta

  • Forecast Delta

  • Error Margin

  • Class: means performance classification (e.g., "negative" when actual falls short of forecast)

Stats:

This section provides statistical of the returns distribution (Mean, Median, Minimum and Max) for 7 days time horizon to reveal typical market behavior in response to similar events

Event Summary

Delivered as a pinned message and updated with each new event detection, provides a high-level view of:

  • The graph: shows the distribution of returns for two categories: Target Values and Total Values for all the events of the last 7 days.

  • Classification Rules: if the error is higher than 0 this indicates a positive classification, if it's smaller then 0, it means negative classification , if the error = 0, it means that the actual value and forecast are the same (neutral).

  • The table: lists various economic events and their corresponding mean values for the classification they have. Each event has a colored indicator (red: negative mean value or green: positive mean value) next to it.

  • Mean Score: The average return for the events class. (Positive score suggests a potential positive impact on BTC price.)


Ÿ Model Predictions: The system utilizes internal Ÿ-models to generate initial predictions for BTC price movements. These models are trained on historical data (features calculated for each event over the past 4 years) for each unique event and timestamp combination.


Last updated